If predictive markets can identify Hollywood hits and oil prices, can they tell what happens to Harry Potter when the last book is released in two days?
"William Hill Plc, a London-based bookmaker, closed bets on Harry sacrificing himself at 2/5 odds on July 17, cut from an original quote of 33/1 in early July. Lord Voldemort, who murdered Potter's parents, is at 9/4 to kill Harry, and Professor Severus Snape is at 4/1 odds to murder him. The bookmaker took more than 50,000 pounds ($100,000) in bets on Harry's fate, the first time in the company's history it had ever bet on a book." (See more odds).
"The idea seems to have gained momentum with Potter fans who expect Rowling to ensure that this is the last book ever written.''
--Bloomberg, press release
Harry Potter experts think Harry will live and even reunite with Ginny. Which gives you an excuse to go and bet that there's the unannounced 8th book in the making, in which Harry will have sex, at 20-1.
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