tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9077317.post7258151008691964731..comments2023-09-16T09:01:40.541-04:00Comments on Advertising Lab: Prediction Markets Go Nuts Over Rep VP PickUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9077317.post-52790016903526675802008-09-02T18:42:00.000-04:002008-09-02T18:42:00.000-04:00You'd expect traders to actively and independently...You'd expect traders to actively and independently seek out various sources of information to guide their investment decisions, and traders with superior sources to <BR/>force the market into the direction of the actual outcome.<BR/><BR/>Maybe Intrade, where people bet for real money, is a different because of the much stronger incentive to make careful and more informed decisions?Ilya Vedrashkohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15739905802015738713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9077317.post-232851520929713622008-09-02T14:43:00.000-04:002008-09-02T14:43:00.000-04:00Isn't one of the main factors in the effectiveness...Isn't one of the main factors in the effectiveness of prediction markets the independence of the participants? It seems that the CNN market has a fairly homogeneous participant pool, at least in terms of what information they have available, ie "mindless absorption of the news stream". Would be interesting to take a look at some of the CNN markets where there was either less voluminous or more diverse.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com